I've gotten as far as installing Origin via Crossover's UI (Mac OS X), then running the old version of Origin which leads to the auto-update download. I found where it expanded the download ([bottle]/drive_c/users/Public/Application Data/Origin/SelfUpdate/StagedUpdate/), then copying all the files to the Origin install directory ([bottle]/drive_c/Program Files/Origin/) after the autoupdate fails. Copying overwrites a couple of files (Origin.VisualElementsManifest.xml and OriginUninstall.exe). Then when I relaunch Origin.exe, it silently runs for a while and eventually exits.
Turns out I found the following in the /users/Public/Application Data/Origin/Logs/Bootstrapper_Log.txt after the execution of Origin.exe fails:
Origin Bootstrapper
0: [Sep 18 21:34:30] Event LogFile: C:\users\Public\Application Data\Origin\Logs\Bootstrapper_Log
1: [Sep 18 21:34:30] Event 09/18/15 21:34:30
2: [Sep 18 21:34:30] Event Version: 9.8.3.59237
3: [Sep 18 21:34:30] Event "C:\ProgramFiles\Origin\Origin.exe"
4: [Sep 18 21:35:00] Event Couldn't get the single instance mutex within 30 sec.
5: [Sep 18 21:35:00] Event Multiple instance detected and didn't restart self
Then I further noticed the following in the /users/Public/Application Data/Origin/Logs/UpdateTool_Log.txt, which accounts for the autoupdate failure:
[2015/9/19 4:25:48.858] Ending
[2015/9/19 4:30:50.600] Starting ; Update System 2 ; UpdateTool v9.8.3.59237
[2015/9/19 4:30:50.600] Mutex acquired.
[2015/9/19 4:30:50.600] Registry operations
[2015/9/19 4:30:50.601] Setting ProgramData permissions succeeded
[2015/9/19 4:30:50.604] Origin running at: C:\Program Files\Origin copy\Origin.exe
[2015/9/19 4:30:50.604] Found Origin folder: C:\Program Files\Origin copy\
[2015/9/19 4:30:50.605] SelfUpdate data location: C:\users\Public\Application Data\Origin\SelfUpdate\StagedUpdate\
[2015/9/19 4:30:50.607] Found valid update data.
[2015/9/19 4:30:50.613] FILE_ATTRIBUTE_HIDDEN: C:\Program Files\Origin copy.DS_Store. Last error: [32]
[2015/9/19 4:30:50.614] SetFileAttributes failed.. Last error: [0]
[2015/9/19 4:30:50.614] Attempting deletion operation: C:\Program Files\Origin copy.DS_Store. Number of times: [1]. Last error: [0]
...
<<lots of repeats of the last three lines...>>
...
[2015/9/19 4:31:1.346] FILE_ATTRIBUTE_HIDDEN: C:\Program Files\Origin copy.DS_Store. Last error: [32]
[2015/9/19 4:31:1.347] SetFileAttributes failed.. Last error: [0]
[2015/9/19 4:31:1.348] Attempting deletion operation: C:\Program Files\Origin copy.DS_Store. Number of times: [200]. Last error: [0]
[2015/9/19 4:31:1.399] Deletion operation FAILED for : C:\Program Files\Origin copy.DS_Store. Number of times: [200]. Last error: [0]
[2015/9/19 4:31:4.571] Ending
I'll poke further but this might have an old Windows hacker stumped, if only because I have no idea what the hell EA is doing here or why.